The same characteristics that aided the Omicron variety of Covid-19 in driving an unprecedented surge in cases and later hospitalizations in Los Angeles earlier this month now appear to be causing a noticeable reduction in those same numbers.
Los Angeles County set an all-time daily new case record of almost 43,000 on January 9. Thanks to an average 7-day test positivity rate of 20.4 percent, which was just about the highest it's ever been in the region, that was up 100 percent in just four days. To put it another way, one out of every five Angelenos tested positive.
Today, the Los Angeles Department of Public Health announced 18,822 new cases. In just over two weeks, the stock has dropped 56%. While the drop isn't as dramatic as the 100 percent increase in cases in the run-up to 43,000, it's still a significant decrease given the presence of a variant that's 2-4 times more transmissible than Delta.
During the same time span, the daily rate of cases per 100,000 residents fell by 20%, and the daily test positivity rate fell by roughly one-third, to 13.8 percent now.
In addition, the number of residents who have become extremely ill and required hospitalization has begun to diminish in recent days. Changes in Covid-related hospitalizations have lagged cases by 2-3 weeks throughout the pandemic. Last week's reduction in hospitalizations came less than two weeks after the peak in cases, supporting the theory that Omicron not only develops quicker than earlier strains, but also cycles through the infected host more swiftly.
“It looks to us that folks may be progressing faster — folks who have omicron — so we’re seeing a much shorter timeframe,” said L.A. Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer recently, before adding, “It looks like they get hit pretty hard earlier on.”
The number of individuals in hospitals reached a high of 4,814 on January 20th, and has gradually decreased since then, with 4,554 persons currently in hospitals. While the drop is tiny and just getting started, it is ahead of the previously anticipated 2-3 week lag between changes in cases and changes in hospitalizations. Hospitalizations would have started to decline on January 23 if a two-week timeframe had been used.
After cases and hospitalizations, deaths are the last lagging signal. Deaths have surged in the last two weeks, from 15 on January 11th to 36 today, a number that may be underestimated due to reporting delays over the weekend. With 102 deaths on Thursday, the county saw the largest number of fatalities since March of 2021.
The number of persons infected with Covid who die is expected to rise in the coming weeks, according to L.A. County officials.
