Hollywood Stocks in 2021

See which among the media and entertainment sector wins and loses.

Coronavirus vaccines, variants, and new waves of infection, global supply chain issues, Reddit-powered meme stocks, mergers and acquisitions, and streaming hopes and fears were among the factors that made 2021 a volatile year for stocks, including those of audio entertainment companies and Hollywood giants.

However, while the broader stock market is expected to end the year significantly higher, as it did in 2020, the media and entertainment sector is expected to end the year with a mix of big winners and losers, as well as a few hardly changed names, with many gainers underperforming the broad-based SP 500 index.

The SP 500 index, which closed at 4,788.64 on Wednesday, was up 28.4 percent for the year as of the December 29 market close, ahead of the year's final trading day. In contrast, major Hollywood conglomerates such as Walt Disney Co. and ViacomCBS, which both hit 52-week lows in December, have had their stock prices fall significantly year-to-date.

Many sector stocks had plummeted in 2020 as a result of the initial COVID-19 impact to economies and Hollywood giants' advertising and other companies, while streamers had risen as a result of subscriber increases amid stay-at-home orders, followed by a mixed bag in 2021. Shares of numerous sector firms rose on prospects of possible upside from economies reopening following the virus issue, as well as growth in the streaming industry.

Concerns about the omicron version and the increased expense of competing for users in the streaming age hurt those stocks later in the year. In 2021, Disney faced new investor questions after posting stock gains in the first pandemic year thanks to investor optimism fueled by the early success of Disney+.

Slowing user growth sparked speculation on Wall Street about whether the Mouse House, led by CEO Bob Chapek, would meet its long-term streaming subscription targets, weighing on the stock as Bob Iger steps down at the end of the year. Disney shares were down 14.3 percent for the year at $154.87 as of Wednesday's market close.

While ViacomCBS announced streaming growth in 2020, its stock continued to fall in 2021 after similarly falling in 2020. "ViacomCBS is executing well on Paramount+ with a robust content pipeline generating subs," Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall said in a Dec. 10 research, maintaining his "overweight" rating and $60 price objective on the stock. "However, the market does not appear to be enthusiastic about streaming's long-term prospects."

"We see 2022 being about showing streaming financials (e.g. peak losses) as Paramount+ continues to scale," Cahall said. ViacomCBS shares closed at $29.99 on Wednesday, down 18.3 percent on the year.

It was a brighter image for Sony Corp., whose operations range from film and television assets to music and video gaming companies to consumer electronics, allowing it to diversify its exposure to diverse sections of the economy. Sony, which finished at $112.00 on Wednesday, followed up a huge 2020 stock gain with a 25.6 percent gain in 2021, almost in line with the Samp;P 500.

Netflix, which reported a 16.4 percent stock price increase in 2021, closing at $610.54 on Wednesday, making it two years in a straight of COVID pandemic gains, despite underperforming the wider market index. Netflix battled with unfavorable year-ago comps for parts of 2021, until regaining hope thanks to third-quarter subscriber and profit upside surprises, as well as the popularity of originals like Squid Game and a pipeline of original material that received thumbs-up from multiple experts.

Roku's stock rose in 2020, but then declined in the following year as users left their homes more after the initial COVID attack, and the global supply chain problem harmed active account and revenue growth, as well as Wall Street forecasts. Roku's stock price closed at $224.80 on December 29, representing a 33.6 percent loss in 2021.

Stocks in movie theaters that had planned for a post-COVID rebound fared differently in 2021. Investor sentiment improved as a result of vaccination programs and reopened circuits, but late in the year, film schedule reshuffles and the advent of the omicron variety caused additional anxieties.

Due to its status as a meme stock, the world's largest exhibitor, AMC Theatres, has had the most growth over the previous 12 months, trending up 1,193.98 percent for 2021 as of Wednesday's market closing at $27.95. Cineworld, the world's second-largest circuit, however, closed at 31.90 pence in London, down 51.4 percent in 2021. The reason for this was a large dip late in the year due to the omicron spread, which reignited concerns about the company's heavy debt load. According to reports, the company's stock is one of the most "shorted" in the United Kingdom. Stocks are expected to continue to fall in value, according to negative investors.

Analysts give Cinemark Holdings, the world's third largest movie theater corporation with a strong presence in Latin America, good grades. However, after closing at $16.52 on December 29, the stock appeared to be down 7% for the year. After closing at $18.09 on Wednesday, Imax, which had a good box office performance entering into the holiday season, was on course to conclude 2021 merely down roughly 2%.

Medium-sized media and entertainment firms, on the other hand, outperformed the SP 500 last year or remained relatively stable. Fox Corp. has gotten high marks from analysts for its potential in the booming sports betting market and its focus on news and sports TV programming, with its class A stock up 27.5 percent year-to-date to $37.09 as of Friday.

Meanwhile, AMC Networks and Lionsgate have benefited from acquisition speculation in the past year, which has boosted their stock prices. After the firm announced that it was investigating its options for Starz, Lionsgate's Class A shares, which finished at $15.95, surged 42.7 percent for the year. This included the possibility of separating the company's pay TV and streaming activities from its studio operations.

When long-time AMC Networks CEO Josh Sapan stepped down last summer, and interim CEO Matt Blank took over, some on Wall Street questioned if the leadership move meant the company was headed for a sale. AMC Networks' stock has down 2% so far in 2021, after closing at $34.45 on Wednesday, due to the lack of suitors.

The equities engaged in the biggest entertainment industry deal of 2021, on the other hand, have taken distinct paths during the last year. In May, Discovery announced a massive merger with ATT's WarnerMedia to form Warner Bros. Discovery was made by the middle of 2022, and the transaction was approved by the European Union right before the holiday season. After sliding in 2020, Discovery lost even more ground in 2021, with the stock closing at $23.87 on Wednesday, down 20% for the year.

Meanwhile, ATT's stock has dropped 13.5 percent in 2021 after closing at 24.64, despite the fact that the company will combine its WarnerMedia and Discovery businesses awaiting completion of the deal. Other major pay TV distribution companies, whose financials and stock prices have benefited from the broadband boom in recent years, came under pressure late in 2021 as broadband subscriber growth slowed.

“After a year in which every stock we cover – yes, every one – badly underperformed the market, it seems only appropriate to start our annual review/preview with a blues song,” wrote MoffettNathanson analyst Craig Moffett in a report just before Christmas. “For cable investors, in particular, the whiff of ‘end of an era’ pessimism is inescapable.”

Comcast's stock, which owns NBCUniversal and is the world's largest cable company, fared better than others, down only 1.2 percent as 2021 draws to a close after closing at $50.59 on Wednesday. Charter Communications, another cable behemoth, finished at $656.28, up slightly over 4% thus far in 2021.

According to CFRA Research analyst Tuna Amobi, "pent-up consumer demand for live sports and out-of-home entertainment" and probable stock moves connected to indicators of success in the streaming business are drivers for entertainment stock performance in 2022.

However, as Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne pointed out in a Dec. 15 research, there will be winners and losers. He predicts that “Growth in streaming, advertising and live entertainment will drive strong revenue growth” across media and entertainment organizations in 2022.

“Strong demand trends across the board, but rapidly rising content costs create (a) wide range of risk and reward across the group” of stocks he covers, Swinburne warned. “The primary factor that will dictate a company’s ability to deliver earnings or margins in line or ahead of expectations next year is the ability to navigate rapidly appreciating content costs.”


Chen Rivor

352 Blog posts

Comments